At Penguin Random House, direct communication and relationships with readers are key to marketplace success, and strong consumer marketing and outreach begin with understanding our audience. Penguin Random House Consumer Insights is excited to present Moments Fall 2024, a report that predicts consumer sentiment and behaviors we can expect during the coming quarter.
This fall, consumers are exploring metamodern mindsets against the backdrop of a tumultuous election, navigating the unruly world of parenting advice overload, and trying to connect with something real as AI encroaches on previously human-centric spaces.
Moments Fall 2024 explores a few key themes:
- Metamodernism: Younger generations, who are more likely to express concerns about their futures, are embracing a metamodernist approach to deal with complexity—acknowledging the difficulties of their reality, understanding there are no easy solutions, and trying to find meaning or hope in the now.
- Parental Control: In a world full of uncertainties, perspectives abound on how parents can get their lives under control. Parents are grappling with where, when, why, and to what extent they should assert some control.
- AI-Generated Connection: While the big media buzz is around AI’s impact on jobs and careers, in other areas AI is making paradigm-shifting breakthroughs in how people connect with themselves and one another—sometimes taking other humans out of the process entirely.
And now for a look at how key genres may resonate with consumers in fall 2024.
1.Romance
Earlier demand for romcoms: The volume of Google searches for “Christmas romcom” has increased year-over-year for the past five years. Last year, searches ramped up two weeks prior to Thanksgiving—earlier than in the past. (Google Trends)
Gen Z romanticizes romance: Gen Z are 30 percent more likely than Gen Y to believe there’s one soulmate for each person, and 39 percent more likely to consider themselves romantically idealistic. Overall, 90 percent stated they were looking for love. (Hinge)
2.Cozies
Cozies on the rise: According to our sales analysis, cozy mysteries are increasing in sales volume. Additionally, genre mashups such as cozy romance or cozy fantasy reflect some of the ironic attitudes of metamodernism.
Looking forward to a cozy winter: Google searches for “cozy” spike seasonally in Q4 (winter) each year. Consider aligning your promotional calendar with these consumer search moments. (Google Trends)
3.Horror
Kids’/teens’ sales trends for Halloween: YA horror book sales saw an uptick of 23 percent during the Halloween period last year, compared to the prior two-month period. Sales were also up 24 percent vs Halloween 2022.
A trend that goes beyond books: In the TV and film space, horror rose in popularity by 40 percent among two-to-fifteen-year-olds in the U.S. between 2022 and 2023. (Dubit Trends via Kidscreen)
4.Cookbooks & Entertaining
Millennials and Gen Z are in their dinner party era: A host of dinner party startups like Hauste and Canary are catering to younger adults at a time when dining out is expensive and many have soured on drinking. (Axios)
Growth opportunities in baking and entertaining: According to our sales analysis, entertaining-focused cookbooks had an incredible surge in 2023, rising 29 percent from 2022 overall. The genre saw its second-strongest year on record after pandemic-era dining in. Baking, a timeless activity, saw a 19 percent increase in 2023, and the baking category was among the bestselling cookbook genres of the year.
5.Humor
Gaining traction as a response to stress: 88 percent of people are looking for new experiences to make them smile and laugh, 91 percent prefer brands to be funny, and 72 percent would choose a brand that uses humor over the competition. (Oracle)
Fall is a time for laughs: Amazon searches for juvenile/young adult funny books peak during the fall, with searches leading to “white elephant” and “gag gift” books during December.
If you have ideas or questions about plugging into any of these trends or opportunities, as always, contact your marketing team for more information.
April Flores is Director, Consumer Insights at Penguin Random House.
Alison Wallach is Senior Manager, Children’s Brand & Consumer Insights at Penguin Random House.